Montanans want action on housing, cost-of-living; support Medicaid, public schools

Poll finds Montana turning toward ‘purple’ and blame governor, legislature and big business for property tax hikes

By Darrell Ehrlick DAILY MONTANAN

The rhetoric doesn’t quite match up to the reality in Montana politics, according to a new poll released by Middle Fork Strategies and conducted by Searchlight Research.

While the national politics are focused on illegal immigration or even reproductive rights, the poll shows that Montanans are increasingly worried about pocketbook issues, including housing, taxes and the cost of goods.

Recent political trends in Montana for the past two election cycles have been leaning, if not bending toward more and more conservative, or “red” positions. However, several polls, including one conducted by the University of Montana last week, shows signs of moderation, making Montana more “purple,” or divided, signaling a possible return to a time that favors more split-ticket voting and shared governance.

Among the findings of the poll, which tends to lean toward older and conservative voters slightly, it demonstrates:

• Montanans are concerned about affordable housing and property taxes.
• Montana residents haven’t cottoned to the idea of private charter schools.
• Residents place the blame for soaring property prices on those moving in from out-of-state. Meanwhile, they tend to overwhelmingly blame the state legislature, Gov. Greg Gianforte and breaks to large businesses as the reason for rapidly rising property taxes.
• Montanans also largely support Medicaid expansion and are adamantly opposed to any cuts to Social Security.

The poll was conducted from April 7 through 10, and had 600 respondents with a margin of error at +/- 4.0%. Searchlight Research is a Democrat-leaning polling agency based in Washington, D.C.

Political science professor Paul Pope of Montana State University-Billings said that the results seemed to align with Montana well.

“If I sat down and took a survey, based on what I think Montana’s perspective would be and compared it to what Montanans said, it’d be pretty close. This is one of the better ones I’ve seen in terms of polling,” Pope said. “And it shows that Montanans still hold middle ground. Montanans are not extreme at all. Montana is different. It’s purple. And we don’t embrace extremes.”

He said that’s why a political like incumbent and Democrat U.S. Sen. Jon Tester can poll strongly while surrounded by conservatives.

“They see him as authentic and moderate,” Pope said. “He even tiptoes on the conservative side.”

However, they tend to identify Tester, whose candidacy was not queried directly in the poll, with farms and education.

The overwhelming message of the poll, Pope said, was one of basic economic issues.

For example, 52% of Montanans in the poll said that Montana is on the wrong track, and 57% said their financial situation or the situation of their neighbors has gotten worse, while only 8% said it has improved.

Meanwhile, the cost of living was the highest concern of the survey, eclipsing other topics, like crime and public safety. Instead, traditional “pocketbook” issues dominated the list of concerns with inflation, property taxes, the cost of housing and public education rounding out the list of pressing concerns for the state’s residents.

“That doesn’t surprise me,” Pope said. “While the economy is hot, regular people aren’t feeling it. Working class people don’t feel it, and they’re being hosed by inflation. But people don’t know the difference between inflation and price gouging because it’s going to have the same effect and feel on the pocketbook.

“It’s even more impressive when you see that this poll leans conservative.”

He said the messaging that the state’s housing is changing because of an influx of out-of-state residents appears to be successful. He said residents in places like Bozeman, Whitefish or Missoula are being priced out of living in those places.

“People are frustrated, and they feel that state government is not taking their side,” Pope said.

In fact, the poll indicates a distrust of state government when it comes to housing and property taxes. In a question that asked who is to blame for the residential property tax increases, residents named Gianforte, the legislature, and tax breaks to larger corporations before they leveled the blame at county or city governments, which lawmakers and the governor had said were responsible for the increases.

“Montanans wanted some kind of relief, and Gianforte and the legislature dropped the ball on that one,” Pope said.

Reproductive rights

Much of the turmoil and uncertainty that existed after the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe vs. Wade and punted the decision back to state legislatures skipped Montana because of its access to abortion, buttressed by the 1999 state Supreme Court decision Armstrong vs. State of Montana. That decision said that Montanans’ right to abortion and reproductive rights was found in the state constitutional guarantee of privacy, especially when it comes to medical decisions.

However, just because the issue has not been as volatile in the Treasure State doesn’t mean it’s not a big issue for residents. Montana voters overwhelmingly support reproductive rights with 58% saying abortion should be legal and available in most circumstances. Even those who didn’t support abortion access most of the time said it should be legal in “extreme cases.” Only 12% said it should be illegal in all cases, or refused to answer.

“Republicans made big missteps on this issue, and it was what killed the ‘red wave’ in 2022,” Pope said.

Pope said other historical examples are useful when thinking about reproductive rights. He said politicians often face backlash when rights that were granted are jeopardized or taken away — it’s happened from prohibition, when alcohol was made illegal, to talk of making voting-by-mail illegal.

Schools, nursing homes, health care

Many Montanans appear to be apprehensive about support for social services and public education.

For example, 50% of respondents disagreed that schools were adequately funded, and that number jumped when talking about senior services care to 62%. Sixty-eight percent also said that Montana teachers were not adequately compensated for their work.

Only 32% of Treasure State residents favored private charter school vouchers, with even fewer saying they were satisfied that those private schools could have school boards that are unelected by the public.

Eighty percent of Montanans favored raising reimbursement rates for nursing homes so that more could stay open in the state. And, three out of every four Montanans favored reauthorizing Medicaid in Montana, something that will have to be done during the 2025 legislative session in order for it to continue in the state.

“Whether it’s deliberately undermining Medicaid expansion or attacking abortion rights, too many lawmakers are ignoring the wishes of Montanans when it comes to healthcare,” said Middle Fork Strategies Executive Director Brandon DeMars. “Large majorities of Montanans support Medicaid expansion and reproductive rights. Elected officials should be focused on real problems, not restricting their constituents’ freedoms.”

Messages for both parties

Even though the political messaging from both political parties paints a very different picture of priorities and problems in the state and the country, Pope said that the successful messaging for both Democrats and Republicans should be similar.

“Housing and education,” Pope said. “We need to focus on things like the cost of living, corporate greed and price gouging and food costs. We need to focus on working people and not corporations.”

He said both political parties may ultimately fail to connect voters, but for different reasons.

Pope said that Republicans should avoid reproductive rights, but likely won’t.

“They have to quit talking about protecting business interests. Business is doing great. No one cares,” he said.

And the GOP may have to reconsider its position on Social Security. Montana is among the oldest states in the union, and the cost of living is squeezing seniors, a key base for Republicans.

“But they’ve been terrible at it,” Pope said. “They’re still talking about cutting Social Security or giving less money when seniors need more to live.”

As the Republican Party appears to be narrowing in terms of its appeal, the opposite problem could hobble the Democrats: A growing number of disparate interests have the ability for the messaging to get lost on the liberal side of the equation.

“It’s meat-and-potatoes issues, and both parties are struggling with that,” Pope said. “It appears to many that everyone’s profiting and it seems like I’m struggling. The Dems aren’t losing on the issues, they’re losing because they’re not competitive. The Democrats aren’t harnessing the issues. They could sweep the elections if they had the right candidates and were focused, but they’re a meandering and diverse party with lots of constituencies.”