Greater Bozeman real estate sees ‘great reset’ in coming year

Urban Land Institute provides in-depth update on real estate and development affecting Bozeman, Big Sky and surrounding markets

EBS STAFF

On Nov. 16, the Urban Land Institute, representatives from local real estate and development agencies, and community members gathered at the AC Hotel by Marriott in Downtown Bozeman to discuss a hot topic: “Emerging Trends in Real Estate.” The outlook, explained representatives from the ULI, is a “hard reset” for the industry, as interest rates climb a bit and the economy slows. The ULI does expect rates to come down again, but not for another five years.

The presentation, discussion panel and Q&A is an annual series and provided a thorough outlook on real estate investment and development trends, real estate finance and capital markets, property sectors, metropolitan areas and other real estate issues. The ULI is the oldest and largest network of cross-disciplinary real estate and land use experts in the world.

Thursday’s report and discussion covered trends in the capital markets including sources and flows of equity and debt capital, suggested which property sectors offer the best opportunities, explained how the economy and concerns about credit issues are affecting real estate, described the impact of social and political trends on real estate and explained how locational preferences are changing.

Here are a few key takeaways for the community of Bozeman from this morning’s presentation:

• Bozeman consistently ranks as one of the fastest growing micropolitan cities in the country. However, the population of Bozeman just passed 50,000 people, which may graduate its status to “metropolitan” in coming years.
• Bozeman renter households with over $100,000 income increased by 25% from 2018 to 2022.
• Gallatin County added 3,000 to 4,000 remote working households in the last eight years.

“Bozeman needs to get vigilant about getting the brightest brains together to put together a plan for this county ASAP,” Eric Ladd, owner and founder of Outlaw Real Estate Partners, urged attendees.

Other topics of discussion surrounded housing affordability, the rise in remote work and the shift of buyers, especially millennials who make up the majority of the current market, from cities to smaller towns.

“A project that we’re working on recently is workforce-for-sale-housing, with higher density and more units to try and make it all make sense,” said Cushing Terrell’s Executive Director of Affordable Housing, Randy Rhoads, on the topic of affordable housing. With housing affordability at its lowest in three decades, Rhoads said Cushing Terrell is seeing a market push towards this higher density housing to try and produce affordable and attainable housing.

Meanwhile, the commercial sector is going through adjustments. While much work is still taking place remotely, a huge share of existing offices is functionally obsolete, and will be repurposed as the office sector reimagines its future.

The full report on emerging real estate trends worldwide can be read here.